Creator: Uhlig, Harald, 1961- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 342 Abstract:
[Please note that the following Greek lettering is improperly transcribed.] If [0,1] is a measure space of agents and X---- a collection of pairwise uncorrelated random variables with common finite mean U and variance a , one would like to establish a law of large numbers () Xdl = U. In this paper we propose to interpret () as a Pettis integral. Using the corresponding Riemann-type version of this integral, we establish (*) and interpret it as an L2-law of large numbers. Intuitively, the main idea is to integrate before drawing an W, thus avoiding well-know measurability problems. We discuss distributional properties of i.i.d. random shocks across the population. We given examples for the economic interpretability of our definition. Finally, we establish a vector-valued version of the law of large numbers for economies.
Keyword: Khinchines law of large numbers, Pettis integral, L2 law of large numbers, Riemann integral, Large numbers, and Random variable Subject (JEL): C10 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
Creator: Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 000 Description:
This paper was published with no issue number.
Keyword: Economic models, Forecasts, Policy studies , and Neutrality view Subject (JEL): E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, R15 - General Regional Economics: Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Models, and E52 - Monetary Policy
Creator: Olsen, Claire L. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 011 Keyword: Organizational structure, Federal Reserve System, and Organizational change Subject (JEL): N22 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: 1913- and E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Creator: Supel, Thomas M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 006 Abstract:
Previous work on discrete time portfolio selection models encompassed (a) transaction's costs, and (b) uncertainty about cash flows during the first (and only) period. This paper extends these models by considering uncertainty about asset yields in the second period and the optimal strategy for portfolio selection over a two-period horizon. Among the implications are i) the optimal initial portfolio is, in general, diversified and contains more short-term assets than the myopic investor's portfolio, and ii) the shape of the mean-variance locus ensures diversification for all (two-moment) types of investors, except certain forms of risk lovers. Other partial derivatives are investigated.
Working paper 6 is based largely on chapter 3 of Supel's University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation, "A two-period balance sheet model for banks."
Keyword: Cash flow, Portfolio diversifying behavior, Optimal strategy, and Diversification Subject (JEL): D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty and G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
Creator: Karabarbounis, Loukas and Neiman, Brent Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 749 Abstract:
Comparing U.S. GDP to the sum of measured payments to labor and imputed rental payments to capital results in a large and volatile residual or “factorless income.” We analyze three common strategies of allocating and interpreting factorless income, speciﬁcally that it arises from economic proﬁts (Case Π), unmeasured capital (Case K), or deviations of the rental rate of capital from standard measures based on bond returns (Case R). We are skeptical of Case Π as it reveals a tight negative relationship between real interest rates and markups, leads to large ﬂuctuations in inferred factor-augmenting technologies, and results in markups that have risen since the early 1980s but that remain lower today than in the 1960s and 1970s. Case K shows how unmeasured capital plausibly accounts for all factorless income in recent decades, but its value in the 1960s would have to be more than half of the capital stock, which we ﬁnd less plausible. We view Case R as most promising as it leads to more stable factor shares and technology growth than the other cases, though we acknowledge that it requires an explanation for the pattern of deviations from common measures of the rental rate. Using a model with multiple sectors and types of capital, we show that our assessment of the drivers of changes in output, factor shares, and functional inequality depends critically on the interpretation of factorless income.
Keyword: Return to capital, Missing capital, Profits, and Factor shares Subject (JEL): E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts, E25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity, and E23 - Macroeconomics: Production
Creator: Ales, Laurence and Maziero, Pricila Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 663 Abstract:
We study the quantitative properties of constrained efficient allocations in an environment where risk sharing is limited by the presence of private information. We consider a life cycle version of a standard Mirrlees economy where shocks to labor productivity have a component that is public information and one that is private information. The presence of private shocks has important implications for the age profiles of consumption and income. First, they introduce an endogenous dispersion of continuation utilities. As a result, consumption inequality rises with age even if the variance of the shocks does not. Second, they introduce an endogenous rise of the distortion on the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure over the life cycle. This is because, as agents age, the ability to properly provide incentives for work must become less and less tied to promises of benefits (through either increased leisure or consumption) in future periods. Both of these features are also present in the data. We look at the data through the lens of our model and estimate the fraction of labor productivity that is private information. We find that for the model and data to be consistent, a large fraction of shocks to labor productivities must be private information.
Keyword: Risk sharing, Private information, and Consumption inequality Subject (JEL): D91 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making, H21 - Taxation and Subsidies: Efficiency; Optimal Taxation, D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory, D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models, D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory, and D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
Creator: Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 234 Abstract:
Current approaches to monetary theory and policy owe much to the "quantity theory of money." However, recent theoretical developments suggest that the manner in which money is introduced is more important, even for price level movements, than the quantity of money. Colonial American experience provides a laboratory for discriminating between these views. It is shown here that the nature of backing, rather than the quantity of money, determined its value. Large secular inflations were ended by changing the nature of backing despite the continuance of large note issues (and despite the absence of a metallic standard). Extremely large note issues and note withdrawals are shown not to have produced inflation (currency depreciation) or deflation (currency appreciation).
Keyword: Fiat money, Quantity theory, Currency, and Colonial America Subject (JEL): N11 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913, E52 - Monetary Policy, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Gertler, Mark Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 531 Abstract:
This paper reexamines the conventional wisdom that commercial banking is an industry in severe decline. We find that a careful reading of the evidence does not justify this conclusion. It is true that on-balance sheet assets held by commercial banks have declined as a share of total intermediary assets. But this measure overstates any drop in banking, for three reasons. First, it ignores the rapid growth in commercial banks' off-balance sheet activities. Second, it fails to take account of the substantial growth in off-shore C&I lending by foreign banks. Third, it ignores the fact that over the last several decades financial intermediation has grown rapidly relative to the rest of the economy. We find that after adjusting the measure of bank assets to account for these considerations there is no clear evidence of secular decline. To corroborate these findings, we also construct an alternative measure of the importance of banking, using data from the National Income Accounts. Again, we find no clear evidence of a sustained declined. At most the industry may have suffered a slight loss of market share over the last decade. But as we discuss, this loss may reflect a transitory response to a series of adverse shocks and the phasing in of new regulatory requirements, rather than the beginning of a permanent decline.
Keyword: Lending, Bank assets, Banking, Intermediation, and Commercial banks Subject (JEL): G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages