Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Business analysis committee meeting Description:
Version without Software Appendix appears on the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Web site at http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=571
Keyword: BVAR, Vector autoregression, and Bayesian analysis Subject (JEL): C53 - Econometric modeling - Forecasting and other model applications
Creator: Aschauer, David Alan. Series: Business analysis committee meeting Abstract:
This paper considers the relationship between total private factor productivity and stock and flow government expenditure variables. The empirical results indicate that (i) the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending, (ii) military capital is not productive, and (iii) the public stock of structures--especially a "core" infrastructure of streets, highways, sewers, and water systems--has more explanatory power for productivity than does the stock of equipment. The paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the "productivity slowdown" of the last fifteen years.
Subject (JEL): D24 - Production and organizations - Production ; Cost ; Capital and total factor productivity ; Capacity and H54 - National government expenditures and related policies - Infrastructures ; Other public investment and capital stock
Creator: Becketti, Sean Series: Business analysis committee meeting Abstract:
The new classical view that macroeconomic fluctuations can be modeled as an equilibrium system perturbed by transitory monetary disturbances has been challenged in recent years by another equilibrium view of fluctuations, the so-called real business cycle theory. In this latter framework, shocks to the production function induce both intertemporal substitution of labor supply and permanent shifts in the stochastic trend of output. Monetary shocks, on the other hand, play only a minor role in this view of the cycle. Much of the empirical support for the real business cycle view of fluctuations is based on a re-examination of traditional methods for detrending economic time series. The issues raised by the real business cycle theorists are not new; indeed, they go back at least to the NBER's first business cycle studies. However, the real business cycle theorists attach a radical economic interpretation to what, on the surface, appears to be a purely technical note on the proper method for detrending economic data. This paper reviews the debate over stochastic trends, discusses the economic implications of the real business cycle interpretation of stochastic trend models, and weighs the time series evidence for some of the stronger claims made by real business cycle theorists. We conclude that, while this literature raises real and useful questions about the interpretation of observed fluctuations, the new classical view of the cycle is not ruled out by the data.
Subject (JEL): E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical
Creator: Diba, Behzad and Oh, Seonghwan Series: Business analysis committee meeting Abstract:
This paper reports some empirical evidence on the relation between the expected real interest rate and monetary aggregates in postwar U.S. data. We find some evidence against the hypothesis, implied by the Real Business Cycle model of Litterman and Weiss (1985), that the expected real interest rate follows a univariate autoregressive process, not Granger-caused by monetary aggregates. Our findings, however, are consistent with a more general bivariate model--suggested by what Barro (1987, Chapter 5) refers to as "the basic market-clearing model"--in which the real rate depends on its own lagged values and on lagged output. Taking this bivariate model as our null hypothesis, we find no evidence that money-stock changes have a significant liquidity effect on the expected real interest rate.
Subject (JEL): E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers, E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles, and E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates