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Creator: Doan, Thomas, Litterman, Robert B., and Sims, Christopher A. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 243 Abstract:
This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variables responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates. We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1963:3* We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyse policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12. While no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, which may help in evaluating causal hypotheses, without containing any such hypotheses themselves.
Mot-clé: Forecasting, Macroeconomics, and Bayesian methods Assujettir: E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications and C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
Creator: Guvenen, Fatih, Kaplan, Greg, and Song, Jae Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 716 Abstract:
We analyze changes in the gender structure at the top of the earnings distribution in the United States over the last 30 years using a 10% sample of individual earnings histories from the Social Security Administration. Despite making large inroads, females still constitute a small proportion of the top percentiles: the glass ceiling, albeit a thinner one, remains. We measure the contribution of changes in labor force participation, changes in the persistence of top earnings, and changes in industry and age composition to the change in the gender composition of top earners. A large proportion of the increased share of females among top earners is accounted for by the mending of, what we refer to as, the paper floor – the phenomenon whereby female top earners were much more likely than male top earners to drop out of the top percentiles. We also provide new evidence at the top of the earnings distribution for both genders: the rising share of top earnings accruing to workers in the Finance and Insurance industry, the relative transitory status of top earners, the emergence of top earnings gender gaps over the life cycle, and gender differences among lifetime top earners.
Mot-clé: Top earners, Paper floor, Industry, Gender gap, and Glass ceiling Assujettir: G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data), J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials, and E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 619_1 La description:
Technical appendix for Working Paper 619, https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.619
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. and Sims, Christopher A. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 055 La description:
Paper prepared for seminar on New Methods in Business Cycle Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, November 13-14, 1975.
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 000 La description:
This paper is labeled as "W" and has no issue number. Issue number 0 is used for chronological purposes.
Mot-clé: Ronald Reagan, Fiscal policy, Poincaré miracle, Margaret Thatcher, Raymond Poincaré, Government deficit, Rational expectations, Momentum, Monetary policy, and Inflation
Creator: He, Hui and Liu, Zheng Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 644 Abstract:
Wage inequality between education groups in the United States has increased substantially since the early 1980s. The relative number of college-educated workers has also increased dramatically in the postwar period. This paper presents a unified framework where the dynamics of both skill accumulation and wage inequality arise as an equilibrium outcome driven by measured investment-specific technological change. Working through equipment-skill complementarity and endogenous skill accumulation, the model does well in capturing the steady growth in the relative quantity of skilled labor during the postwar period and the substantial rise in wage inequality after the early 1980s. Based on the calibrated model, we examine the quantitative effects of some hypothetical tax-policy reforms on skill accumulation, wage inequality, and welfare.
Mot-clé: Skill premium, Capital-skill complementarity, Investment-specific technological change, and Skill accumulation Assujettir: O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, E25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials, and J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Creator: Christiano, Lawrence J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 163 Abstract:
This paper shows how to derive the family of models in which Cagan’s model of hyperinflation is a rational expectations model. The slope parameter in Cagan’s portfolio balance equation is identified in some of these models and in others it is not—a fact which clarifies results obtained in several recent papers.
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 634 Abstract:
This paper describes a newly constructed data set of all U.S. state banks from 1782 to 1861. It contains the names and locations of all banks and branches that went into business and an estimate of when each operated. The compilation is based on reported balance sheets, listings in banknote reporters, and secondary sources. Based on these data, the paper presents a count of the number of banks and branches in business by state. I argue that my series are superior to previously existing ones for reasons of consistency, accuracy, and timing. The paper contains examples to support this argument.
Assujettir: N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
Creator: Zhang, Yuzhe Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 639 Abstract:
This paper studies the stability of a stochastic optimal growth economy introduced by Brock and Mirman [J. Econ. Theory 4 (1972)] by utilizing stochastic monotonicity in a dynamic system. The construction of two boundary distributions leads to a new method of studying systems with non-compact state space. The paper shows the existence of a unique invariant distribution. It also shows the equivalence between the stability and the uniqueness of the invariant distribution in this dynamic system.
Mot-clé: Monotonic operator, Stochastic dominance, Stochastic growth, and Global stability Assujettir: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium, and C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
Creator: Altug, Sumru Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 277 Abstract:
This paper presents maximum likelihood estimates of a real business cycle model very similar to one Kydland and Prescott  suggested. The results of the paper conflict with Kydland and Prescott’s. The model leaves unexplained much of the variance of two key investment series, namely, structures and equipment. Also, much of the variation in the differences of per capita hours can be generated assuming that past leisure choices do not affect current utility.