Creator: Bocola, Luigi Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 722 Abstract:
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of sovereign credit risk in a business cycle model where banks are exposed to domestic government debt. The news of a future sovereign default hampers financial intermediation. First, it tightens the funding constraints of banks, reducing their available resources to finance firms (liquidity channel). Second, it generates a precautionary motive for banks to deleverage (risk channel). I estimate the model using Italian data, finding that i) sovereign credit risk was recessionary and that ii) the risk channel was sizable. I then use the model to evaluate the effects of subsidized long term loans to banks, calibrated to the ECB’s longer-term refinancing operations. The presence of strong precautionary motives at the time of policy enactment implies that bank lending to firms is not very sensitive to these credit market interventions.
Keyword: Credit policies, Financial constraints, and Sovereign debt crises Subject (JEL): G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, G01 - Financial Crises, E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, and E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Creator: Afonso, Gara and Lagos, Ricardo Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 708 Abstract:
We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Keyword: Federal funds market, Monetary policy, and Federal funds rates Subject (JEL): G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems, and E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew, Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Weill, Pierre-Olivier, and d'Avernas, Adrien Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 567 Abstract:
Banks' ratio of the market value to book value of their equity was close to 1 until the 1990s, then more than doubled during the 1996-2007 period, and fell again to values close to 1 after the 2008 financial crisis. Sarin and Summers (2016) and Chousakos and Gorton (2017) argue that the drop in banks' market-to-book ratio since the crisis is due to a loss in bank franchise value or profitability. In this paper we argue that banks' market-to-book ratio is the sum of two components: franchise value and the value of government guarantees. We empirically decompose the ratio between these two components and find that a large portion of the variation in this ratio over time is due to changes in the value of government guarantees.
Keyword: Bank financial soundness, Bank leverage, Bank valuation, Banking, Bank regulation, and Risk shifting Subject (JEL): E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, H12 - Crisis Management, G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill, G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, G38 - Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation, and G28 - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation