Resultados de la búsqueda
Creator: Beaudry, Paul. and Portier, Franck. Series: Great depressions of the twentieth century Abstract:
In this paper we make the following three claims. (1), in contradiction with the conventional view according to which the French depression was very different to that observed in the US, we argue that there are more similarities than differences between the French and U.S. experiences and therefore a common explanation should be sought. (2), poor growth in technological opportunities appear neither necessary nor sufficient to account for the French depression. (3), changes in institutional and market regulation appear necessary to account for the overall changes observed over the period. Moreover, we show that the size of these institutional changes may by themselves be enough to quantatively explain the French depression. However, at this time, we have no theory to explain the size or the timing of these changes.
Palabra clave: France, Market regulation, Stagnation, and Depression Tema: N14 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - Europe : 1913- and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Ayres, Joao, Navarro, Gaston, Nicolini, Juan Pablo, and Teles, Pedro Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 757 Abstract:
We explore quantitatively the possibility of multiple equilibria in a model of sovereign debt crises. The source of multiplicity is the one identified by Calvo (1988). This type of multiplicity has been at the heart of the policy debate through the recent European sovereign debt crisis. Key for multiplicity in the model is a stochastic process for output featuring long periods of either high or low growth. We calibrate the output process in the model using data for the southern European countries that were exposed to the debt crisis. We find that expectations-driven sovereign debt crises are empirically plausible, but only in periods of stagnation. Multiplicity is state dependent: in periods of stagnation and for intermediate levels of debt, interest rates may be high for reasons unrelated to fundamentals.
Palabra clave: Multiplicity, Self-fulfilling debt crises, Stagnation, Sovereign default, and Good and bad times Tema: E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy and F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems