Creator: Rotemberg, Julio. Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
I show that a simple sticky price model based on Rotemberg (1982) is consistent with a variety of facts concerning the correlation of prices, hours and output. In particular, I show that it is consistent with a negative correlation between the detrended levels of output and prices when the Beveridge-Nelson method is used to detrend both the price and output data. Such a correlation, i.e.,a negative correlation between the predictable movements in output and the predictable movements in prices is present (and very strong) in U.S. data. Consistent with the model, this correlation is stronger than correlations between prices and hours of work. I also study the size of the predictable price movements that are associated with predictable output movements as well as the degree to which there are predictable movements in monetary aggregates associated with predictable movements in output. These facts are used to shed light on the degree to which the Federal Reserve has pursued a policy designed to stabilize expected inflation.
关键词: Monetary policy, Output, Inflation, Federal Reserve, and Prices 学科: E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, E24 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational income distribution ; Aggregate human capital, E23 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Production, and E50 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - General
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
A cash-in-advance model with sequential markets is constructed, where unanticipated monetary injections are nonneutral and can potentially produce large liquidity effects. However, if the monetary authority adheres to an optimal money rule, money should not respond to unanticipated shocks, so that a Friedman rule is suboptimal and the monetary authority does not exploit the liquidity effect. Quantitatively, the model can generate variability in money and nominal interest rates close to what is observed, and can produce data with no obvious evidence of the existence of liquidity effects.
关键词: Monetary policy, Interest, Liquidity, Money, and Interest rates 学科: E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy and E50 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - General
Creator: Lacker, Jeffrey Malcolm. Series: Foundations of policy toward electronic money Abstract:
Briefly reviews the potential consequences of electronic money for the management of the government's balance sheet through open market operations and for the regulations governing the public and private issue of payment instruments.
关键词: Monetary policy, Electronic money, and Payment instruments 学科: E58 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Central banks and their policies, E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy, and E42 - Money and interest rates - Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems
Creator: Erceg, Christopher J. and Levin, Andrew T. (Andrew Theo) Series: Joint commitee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
The durable goods sector is much more interest sensitive than the non-durables sector, and these sectoral differences have important implications for monetary policy. In this paper, we perform VAR analysis of quarterly US data and find that a monetary policy innovation has a peak impact on durable expenditures that is roughly five times as large as its impact on non-durable expenditures. We then proceed to formulate and calibrate a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that roughly matches the impulse response functions of the data. We derive the social welfare function and show that the optimal monetary policy rule responds to sector-specific inflation rates and output gaps. We show that some commonlyprescribed policy rules perform poorly in terms of social welfare, especially rules that put a higher weight on inflation stabilization than on output gap stabilization. By contrast, it is interesting that certain rules that react only to aggregate variables, including aggregate output gap targeting and rules that respond to a weighted average of price and wage inflation, may yield a welfare level close to the optimum given a typical distribution of shocks.
关键词: Monetary policy, Consumer, Business cycles, Durable goods, and Social welfare 学科: E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Edge, Rochelle Mary, 1971- and Rudd, Jeremy Bay, 1970- Series: Joint commitee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
We add a nominal tax system to a sticky-price monetary business cycle model. When nominal interest income is taxed, the coefficient on inflation in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule must be significantly larger than one in order for the model economy to have a determinate rational expectations equilibrium. When depreciation is treated as a charge against taxable income, an even larger weight on inflation is required in the Taylor rule in order to obtain a determinate and stable equilibrium. These results have obvious implications for assessing the historical conduct of monetary policy.
关键词: Monetary policy, Business cycle, Cycle, Interest, Inflation, Policy, Prices, Monetary, Rational expectation, and Tax 学科: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates, E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, E12 - General aggregative models - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Croushore, Dean Darrell, 1956- and Evans, Charles, 1958- Series: Joint committee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
Monetary policy research using time series methods has been criticized for using more information than the Federal Reserve had available in setting policy. To quantify the role of this criticism, we propose a method to estimate a VAR with real-time data while accounting for the latent nature of many economic variables, such as output. Our estimated monetary policy shocks are closely correlated with a typically estimated measure. The impulse response functions are broadly similar across the methods. Our evidence suggests that the use of revised data in VAR analyses of monetary policy shocks may not be a serious limitation.
关键词: Monetary policy, Identification, VARs, Data revisions, Real-time data, and Shocks 学科: C82 - Data collection and data estimation methodology ; Computer programs - Methodology for collecting, estimating, and organizing macroeconomic data, C32 - Multiple or simultaneous equation models - Time-series models ; Dynamic quantile regressions, and E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy
Creator: Chari, V. V., Christiano, Lawrence J., and Eichenbaum, Martin S. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
Different monetary aggregates covary very differently with short term nominal interest rates. Broad monetary aggregates like Ml and the monetary base covary positively with current and future values of short term interest rates. In contrast, the nonborrowed reserves of banks covary negatively with current and future interest rates. Observations like this 'sign switch' lie at the core of recent debates about the effects of monetary policy actions on short term interest rates. This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary business cycle model which is consistent with these facts. Our basic explanation of the 'sign switch' is that movements in nonborrowed reserves are dominated by exogenous shocks to monetary policy, while movements in the base and Ml are dominated by endogenous responses to non-policy shocks.
关键词: Monetary policy, Interest, Money, Shocks, Inside money, and Interest rates 学科: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates and E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers