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Creator: Backus, David, Kehoe, Patrick J., and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Modeling North American economic integration Abstract:
We look for the scale effects on growth predicted by some theories of trade and growth based on dynamic returns to scale at the national or industry level. The increasing returns can arise from learning by doing, investment in human capital, research and development, or development of new products. We find some evidence of a relation between growth rates and the measures of scale implied by the learning by doing theory, especially total manufacturing. With respect to human capital, there is some evidence of a relation between growth rates and per capita measures of inputs into the human capital accumulation process, but little evidence of a relation with the scale of inputs. There is also little evidence that growth rates are related to measures of inputs into R&D. We find, however, that growth rates are related to measures of intra-industry trade, particularly when we control for scale of industry.
Palavra-chave: External effects, Intra-industry trade, Specialization indexes, Increasing returns to scale, Learning by doing, Research and development, Human capital, and International trade Sujeito: F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Uy, Timothy, Yi, Kei-Mu, and Zhang, Jing Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 456 Abstract:
We study the importance of international trade in structural change. Our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks, and allows for non-unitary income and substitution elasticities. We calibrate our model to investigate South Korea’s structural change between 1971 and 2005. We find that the shock processes, propagated through the model’s two main transmission mechanisms, non-homothetic preferences and the open economy, explain virtually all of the evolution of agriculture and services labor shares, and the rising part of the hump-shape in manufacturing. Counterfactual exercises show that the role of the open economy is quantitatively important for explaining South Korea’s structural change.
Palavra-chave: International trade, Sectoral labor reallocation, and Structural transformation Sujeito: O13 - Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products, F20 - International Factor Movements and International Business: General, F40 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Pujolas, Pau S., and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 533 Abstract:
We show that a trade model with an exogenous set of heterogeneous firms with fixed operating costs has the same aggregate outcomes as a span-of-control model. Fixed costs in the heterogeneous-firm model are entrepreneurs' forgone wage in the span-of-control model.
Palavra-chave: Span-of-control model, International trade, Firm heterogeneity, and Income distribution Sujeito: F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, and D43 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
Creator: Bajona, Claustre and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 378 Abstract:
In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model — a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model — with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.
Palavra-chave: International trade, Economic growth, Convergence, and Heckscher–Ohlin Sujeito: F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, O15 - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration, F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Eaton, Jonathan, Kortum, Samuel, and Kramarz, Francis Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 332 Abstract:
We examine entry across 113 national markets in 16 different industries using a comprehensive data set of French manufacturing firms. The data are unique in indicating how much each firm exports to each destination. Looking across all manufacturers: (1) Firms differ substantially in export participation, with most selling only at home; (2) The number of firms selling to multiple markets falls off with the number of destinations with an elasticity of –2.5; (3) Decomposing French exports to each destination into the size of the market and French share, variation in market share translates nearly completely into firm entry while about 60 percent of the variation in market size is reflected in firm entry. Looking within each of 16 industries we find little variation in these patterns. We propose that any successful model of trade and market structure must confront these facts.
Palavra-chave: Industrial chemistry, Furniture industry, Metals industries, International trade, Market share, Exports, Tobacco industry, Industrial machinery, ndustrial market , and Heavy industry Sujeito: L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, and L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 324 Abstract:
We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral commodity trade due to goods not exported previously or exported only in small quantities. Using a panel of 1,900 country pairs, we find that increased trade of these “least-traded goods” is an important factor in trade growth. This extensive margin accounts for 10 percent of the growth in trade for NAFTA country pairs, for example, and 26 percent in trade between the United States and Chile, China, and Korea. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little change in the extensive margin.
Palavra-chave: International trade, Extensive margin, Trade liberalization, NAFTA , and Structural change Sujeito: F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, O14 - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology, F10 - Trade: General, and F44 - International Business Cycles