Résultats de recherche
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Ruhl, Kim J., and Steinberg, Joseph B. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 489 Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the U.S. goods-producing sector has fallen. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing, nonhomothetic preferences, and differential productivity growth across sectors. We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from U.S. trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall.
Mot-clé: Real exchange rate, Structural change, and Global imbalances Assujettir: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Fogli, Alessandra and Perri, Fabrizio Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 512 Abstract:
Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affect accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. An increase in volatility (measured as the standard deviation of GDP growth) of 0.5% over period of 10 years is associated with an increase in the net foreign assets of around 8% of GDP. A standard open economy model with time varying aggregate uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces residents to save more, and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets. We conclude that both data and theory suggest uncertainty/volatility is an important determinant of the medium/long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries.
Mot-clé: Uncertainty, Business cycles, Global imbalances, Current account, and Precautionary saving Assujettir: F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements, F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, and F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics