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  • K35694332?file=thumbnail
    Creator: Todd, Richard M.
    Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.)
    Number: 355
    Abstract: Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues 1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and 2) that these analyses can be sharpened by using the forecasting model to systematically express its forecast revision as the sum of components identified with specific data revisions and forecast errors. An algorithm for this purpose is explained and illustrated.
    Keyword: Forecast revisions, Data revisions, Forecasting, and Innovation
    Subject: E17 - General aggregative models - Forecasting and simulation