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Creator: Backus, David and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 348 Abstract: We derive the empirical implications of a popular class of international macroeconomic models. The real economy is a stochastic exchange model with complete markets. A standard result is that cross-country risk sharing implies perfect correlation between consumption paths across countries. With mild restrictions on the endowment process ii also implies a positive correlation between net exports and output in every country. We introduce money using cash-in-advance constraints and show that the implications for real variables carry over into the monetary economy. These dichotomy and neutrality propositions generalize those in the literature to stochastic environments with heterogeneous agents, and do not require the cash-in-advance constraint to bind in every state. They imply that any correlation between the nominal exchange rate and the balance of trade can be made consistent with the theory.
Palabra clave: Cash-in-advance, Government finance, Risk-sharing, Monetary policy, and Exchange rates Tema: F30 - International Finance: General, D46 - Value Theory, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles -
Creator: Backus, David and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 348 Abstract: We derive the empirical implications of a popular class of international macroeconomic models. The real economy is a stochastic exchange model with complete markets. A standard result is that cross-country risk sharing implies perfect correlation between consumption paths across countries. With mild restrictions on the endowment process ii also implies a positive correlation between net exports and output in every country. We introduce money using cash-in-advance constraints and show that the implications for real variables carry over into the monetary economy. These dichotomy and neutrality propositions generalize those in the literature to stochastic environments with heterogeneous agents, and do not require the cash-in-advance constraint to bind in every state. They imply that any correlation between the nominal exchange rate and the balance of trade can be made consistent with the theory.
Palabra clave: Cash-in-advance, Government finance, Risk-sharing, Monetary policy, and Exchange rates Tema: F30 - International Finance: General, D46 - Value Theory, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles -
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Creator: Miller, Preston J. and Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 481 Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of changes in a country's monetary policies on its economy and the welfare of its citizens and those of other countries. Each country is populated by two-period lived overlapping agents who reside in either a home service sector or a world-traded good sector. Policy effects are transmitted through changes in the real interest rate, relative prices, and price levels. Welfare effects are sometimes dominated by relative price movements and can thus be opposite of those found in one-good models. Simulation of dynamic paths also reveals that welfare effects for some types of agents reverse between those born in immediate post-shock periods and those born later.
Palabra clave: Exchange rates, Real interest rates, Monetary policy, Prices, and Relative prices Tema: E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation, F31 - Foreign Exchange, and E52 - Monetary Policy