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Creator: Ostroy, Joseph M. and Potter, Simon M. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract: We formulate a representative consumer model of intertemporal resource reallocation in which fluctuations in equity prices contribute to the smoothing of consumption flows. Features of the model include (a) an incompletely observable stochastic process of productivity shocks leading to fluctuating confidence of beliefs and (b) technologies involving commitments of a resource good. These features are exploited to show that (1) equities are not a representative form of total wealth and (2) the valuation of currently active firms is not representative of the valuation of all firms. We examine the implications of (1) and (2) to argue that empirical findings for the volatility and 'value shortfall' of equity prices may be consistent with a frictionless representative consumer model having a low degree of risk-aversion. Simulation of a calibrated version of the model for a risk-neutral consumer shows that when the 'data' is analyzed according to current econometric procedures, it is found to exhibit volatility of the same order of magnitude as that found in the actual data, although the model contains no excess volatility.
Palabra clave: Technological commitments, Equity premium, Uncertainty of beliefs, Excess volatility, and Value shortfall Tema: G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, G14 - General financial markets - Information and market efficiency ; Event studies, and E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical -
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Creator: Mehra, Rajnish, Piguillem, Facundo, and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 655 Abstract: There is a large amount of intermediated borrowing and lending between households. Some of it is intergenerational, but most is between older households. The average difference in borrowing and lending rates is over 2 percent. In this paper, we develop a model economy that displays these facts and matches not only the returns on assets but also their quantities. The heterogeneity giving rise to borrowing and lending and differences in equity holdings depends on differences in the strength of the bequest motive. In equilibrium, the lenders are annuity holders and the borrowers are those who have equity holdings, who live off its income when retired, and who leave a bequest. The borrowing rate and return on equity are the same in the absence of aggregate uncertainty. The divergence between borrowing and lending rates can thus give rise to an equity premium, even in a world without aggregate uncertainty.
Palabra clave: Retirement, Equity premium, Government debt, Borrowing, Aggregate intermediation, Life cycle savings, and Lending Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors, G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth, G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, E20 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data), E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, H00 - Public Economics: General, and G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)