Creator: Engbom, Niklas Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 756 Abstract:
I develop an idea flows theory of firm and worker dynamics in order to assess the consequences of population aging. Older people are less likely to attempt entrepreneurship and switch employers because they have found better jobs. Consequently, aging reduces entry and worker mobility through a composition effect. In equilibrium, the lower entry rate implies fewer new, better job opportunities for workers, while the better matched labor market dissuades job creation and entry. Aging accounts for a large share of substantial declines in firm and worker dynamics since the 1980s, primarily due to equilibrium forces. Cross-state evidence supports these predictions.
Stichwort: Demographics, Entrpreneurial choice, Labor turnover, Economic growth, and Employment Fach: J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts, E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity, and O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Meza, Felipe Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 693 Abstract:
In 1950 Mexico entered an economic takeoff and grew rapidly for more than 30 years. Growth stopped during the crises of 1982–1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. Since then growth has been modest. We analyze the economic history of Mexico 1877–2010. We conclude that the growth 1950–1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner. If Mexico is to resume rapid growth — so that it can approach U.S. levels of income — it needs further reforms.
Stichwort: Total factor productivity, Mexico, and Economic growth Fach: O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean, N16 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Latin America; Caribbean, and O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Creator: Chari, V. V., Golosov, Mikhail, and Tsyvinski, Aleh Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 673 Abstract:
Innovative activities have public good characteristics in the sense that the cost of producing the innovation is high compared to the cost of producing subsequent units. Moreover, knowledge of how to produce subsequent units is widely known once the innovation has occurred and is, therefore, non-rivalrous. The main question of this paper is whether mechanisms can be found which exploit market information to provide appropriate incentives for innovation. The ability of the mechanism designer to exploit such information depends crucially on the ability of the innovator to manipulate market signals. We show that if the innovator cannot manipulate market signals, then the efficient levels of innovation can be implemented without deadweight losses–for example, by using appropriately designed prizes. If the innovator can use bribes, buybacks, or other ways of manipulating market signals, patents are necessary.
Stichwort: Innovations, Mechanism design, Patents, Prizes, and Economic growth Fach: O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory, O34 - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital, D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design, O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, and D04 - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation, Implementation, and Evaluation
Creator: Laitner, John Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
This paper presents a model in which a country's average propensity to save tends to rise endogenously over time. The paper uses a two-sector neoclassical framework to model the transition from agriculture to manufacturing which typically accompanies economic development. Key assumptions are that only the agricultural sector uses land and a simple version of Engel's law. When a country's income per capita is low, agricultural consumption is important; consequently, land is valuable and capital gains on it may account for most wealth accumulation, making the NIPA APS appear low. If exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time, Engel's law shifts demand to manufactured goods. Then land's importance in portfolios relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the measured average propensity to save can rise.
Stichwort: Growth, Manufacturing, and Economic growth Fach: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models and O14 - Economic development - Industrialization ; Manufacturing and service industries ; Choice of technology
Creator: Benhabib, Jess, 1948- and Rustichini, Aldo Series: Economic growth and development Abstract:
In this paper we study the relationship between wealth, income distribution and growth in a game-theoretic context in which property rights are not completely enforcable. We consider equilibrium paths of accumulation which yield players utilities that are at least as high as those that they could obtain by appropriating higher consumption at the present and suffering retaliation later on. We focus on those subgame perfect equilibria which are constrained Pareto-efficient (second best). In this set of equilibria we study how the level of wealth affects growth. In particular we consider cases which produce classical traps (with standard concave technologies): growth may not be possible from low levels of wealth because of incentive constraints while policies (sometimes even first-best policies) that lead to growth are sustainable as equilibria from high levels of wealth. We also study cases which we classify as the "Mancur Olson" type: first best policies are used at low levels of wealth along these constrained Pareto efficient equilibria, but first best policies are not sustainable at higher levels of wealth where growth slows down. We also consider the unequal weighting of players to ace the subgame perfect equiliria on the constrained Pareto frontier. We explore the relation between sustainable growth rates and the level of inequality in the distribution of income.
Stichwort: Economic growth, Conflict, and Equilibria Fach: D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Bajona, Claustre and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 378 Abstract:
In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model — a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model — with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.
Stichwort: Heckscher–Ohlin, Economic growth, International trade, and Convergence Fach: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O15 - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration, F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, and F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew and Burstein, Ariel Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 459 Abstract:
We examine the quantitative impact of policy-induced changes in innovative investment by firms on growth in aggregate productivity and output in a model that nests several of the canonical models in the literature. We isolate two statistics, the impact elasticity of aggregate productivity growth with respect to an increase in aggregate innovative investment and the degree of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in research, that play a key role in shaping the model’s predicted dynamic response of aggregate productivity, output, and welfare to a policy-induced change in the innovation intensity of the economy. Given estimates of these statistics, we find that there is only modest scope for increasing aggregate productivity and output over a 20-year horizon with uniform subsidies to firms’ investments in innovation of a reasonable magnitude, but the welfare gains from such a subsidy may be substantial.
Stichwort: Economic growth, Innovation policies, and Social depreciation Fach: O30 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights: General and O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General