Creator: Galor, Oded, 1953- and Weil, David N. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces parents to substitute child quality for quantity.
Keyword: Technological change, Malthusian, Growth, Development, Demographics, Demographic transition, Fertility, and Population Subject (JEL): O11 - Economic development - Macroeconomic analyses of economic development, J13 - Demographic economics - Fertility ; Family planning ; Child care ; Children ; Youth, O40 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - General, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Crone, Theodore M. and Mills, Leonard O. (Leonard Orion), 1960- Series: System committee on agriculture and rural development Abstract:
Cointegration tests are used to examine the basic long-term relation between population and the housing stock. There is some weak evidence of a long-run relation between the constant-cost value of the housing stock and population-driven demand. Much stronger evidence exists for a long-term relation between owner-occupied housing units and the adult population. We generally cannot reject that the number of housing units intended for owner-occupancy has adjusted in proportion to the population 25 years of age and older. Using these results and current population projections, we produce trend forecasts through the year 2010 for the owner-occupied housing stock and single-family housing starts in the U.S.
Keyword: Population, Demographics, and Housing Subject (JEL): J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts ; General Migration and R31: Housing Supply and Markets