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Creator: Bryant, John B. and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 123 Abstract: In "Open Market Operations in a Model of Regulated, Insured Intermediaries" [JPE, forthcoming] we show that once-for-all open market purchases need not be inflationary. Here we show this result can carry over to various stationary accommodation rules given stochastic deficits. In particular, the inflationary and deflationary effects of stochastic deficits are not offset by, nor welfare improved by, a monetary policy that leans toward monetarism. Moreover, a constant money growth rule is not in the class of stationary policies given the kind of stochastic deficit we analyze, which by itself is a serious indictment of the monetarist proposal.
Keyword: Accomodation rules, Inflation, Monetarism, Debt, and Deflation Subject (JEL): E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and H62 - National Deficit; Surplus -
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 238 Keyword: Budget, Dynamic games, Minnesota Vikings, Fiscal policy, Reaganomics, Debt, Deficit, and Monetary policy Subject (JEL): C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games and E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes -
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 354 Abstract: In this paper we analyze the constraints imposed by dynamic consistency in a model of optimal taxation. We assume that only distorting taxes are available to finance government consumption. Optimal fiscal policy requires the use of debt to smooth distortions over time. Dynamic consistency requires that governments at each point in time not have an incentive to default on the inherited debt. We consider policy functions which map the history of the economy including the actions of past governments into current decisions. A sustainable plan is a sequence of history-contingent policies which are optimal at each date given that future policies will be selected according to the plan. We show that if agents discount the future sufficiently little and if government consumption fluctuates then optimal sustainable plans yield policies and allocations which are identical to those under full commitment. We contrast our notion of dynamic consistency with other definitions.
Keyword: Fiscal policy, Economic policy, and Debt Subject (JEL): E62 - Fiscal Policy and E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination -
Creator: Ryan, Mary Ellen, 1928- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 000 Description: This paper was published with no issue number.
Keyword: Middle class, Delinquency, and Debt Subject (JEL): D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation and D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis -
Creator: Cole, Harold Linh, 1957- and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 534 Keyword: Loans and Debt Subject (JEL): F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems and E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination -
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 512 Abstract: We investigate ex-ante efficient contracts in an environment in which implementation is costless. In this environment, standard debt contracts will typically not be optimal. Optimal contracts may involve defaults, even in states in which the borrower is fully able to repay. We then examine the welfare costs of arbitrarily restricting the set of feasible contracts to standard debt contracts. When model parameters are calibrated to realistic values, the welfare loss from exogenously imposing this restriction is extremely small. Thus, if the implementation costs are actually nontrivial (as seems likely), standard debt contracts will be (very close to) optimal.
Keyword: CSV, Optimal contract, CESV, Standard debt contract, Ex ante contract, Costly state verification, Loans, Financial contract, Bankruptcy, Costly ex-post state verification, Contracts, and Debt Subject (JEL): G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) and D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory -
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 399 Abstract: In this paper we analyze the constraints imposed by dynamic consistency in a model of optimal taxation. We assume that only distorting taxes are available to finance government consumption. Optimal fiscal policy requires the use of debt to smooth distortions over time. Dynamic consistency requires that governments at each point in time not have an incentive to default on the inherited debt. We consider policy functions which map the history of the economy including the actions of past governments into current decisions. A sustainable plan is a sequence of history-contingent policies which are optimal at each date given that future policies will be selected according to the plan. We show that if agents discount the future sufficiently little and if government consumption fluctuates then optimal sustainable plans yield policies and allocations which are identical to those under full commitment. We contrast our notion of dynamic consistency with other definitions.
Keyword: Economic policy, Debt, and Fiscal policy Subject (JEL): E62 - Fiscal Policy and E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination -