Creator: Mendoza, Enrique G., 1963- and Smith, Katherine A. Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
"Sudden Stops " experienced during emerging markets crises are characterized by large reversals of capital inflows and the current account, deep recessions, and collapses in asset prices. This paper proposes an open-economy equilibrium asset pricing model in which financial frictions cause Sudden Stops. Margin requirements impose a collateral constraint on foreign borrowing by domestic agents and trading costs distort asset trading by foreign securities firms. At equilibrium, margin constraints may or may not bind depending on portfolio decisions and equilibrium asset prices. If margin constraints do not bind, productivity shocks cause a moderate fall in consumption and a widening current account deficit. If debt is high relative to asset holdings, the same productivity shocks trigger margin calls forcing domestic agents to fire-sell equity to foreign traders. This sets off a Fisherian asset-price deflation and subsequent rounds of margin calls. A current account reversal and a collapse in consumption occur when equity sales cannot prevent a sharp rise in net foreign assets.
Stichwort: Collateral constraints, Fisherian deflation, Emerging markets, Margin calls, Open economy asset pricing, Asset pricing, Sudden stops, Nonlinear dynamics, and Trading costs Fach: F32 - International finance - Current account adjustment ; Short-term capital movements, D52 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Incomplete markets, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, and F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics
Creator: Buera, Francisco and Nicolini, Juan Pablo Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 714 Abstract:
We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash-in-advance constraints. These two frictions give rise to a nontrivial financial market in a monetary economy. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a recession generated by a credit crunch. The model can be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic variables, and on the welfare of each individual of alternative monetary and fiscal policies following the credit crunch. The model reproduces several features of the recent financial crisis, such as the persistent negative real interest rates, the prolonged period at the zero bound for the nominal interest rate, and the collapse in investment and low inflation in spite of the very large increases in liquidity adopted by the government. The policy implications are in sharp contrast to the prevalent view in most central banks, which is based on the New Keynesian explanation of the liquidity trap.
Stichwort: Credit crunch, Ricardian equivalence, Collateral constraints, Monetary policy, and Liquidity trap Fach: E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy, E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies, and E52 - Monetary Policy
Creator: Buera, Francisco and Nicolini, Juan Pablo Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 540 Abstract:
We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash-in-advance constraints. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch-generated recession that reproduces several features of the ﬁnancial crisis that unraveled in 2007 in the United States. The model can be used to study the effects of the credit-crunch on the main macroeconomic variables and the impact of alternative policies. The policy implications regarding forward guidance are in contrast with the prevalent view in most central banks, based on the New Keynesian explanation of the liquidity trap.
Stichwort: Credit crunch, Collateral constraints, Ricardian equivalence, Monetary policy, and Liquidity trap Fach: E52 - Monetary Policy, E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy, and E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies