Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 407 Abstract:
Doan, Litterman, and Sims have described a method for estimating Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) forecasting models. The method has been successfully applied to the U.S. macroeconomic dataset, which is relatively long and stable. Despite the brevity and volatility of the post-1976 Chilean macroeconomic dataset, this paper shows that a straightforward application of the DLS method to this dataset, with simple modifications to allow for delays in the release of data, also appears to satisfy at least one criterion of relative forecasting accuracy suggested by Doan, Litterman, and Sims. However, the forecast errors of the Chilean BVARs are still large in absolute terms. Also, the model's coefficients change sharply in periods marked by policy shifts, such as the floating of the peso in 1982.
关键词: Chile and Bayesian autoregressive vector forecasting models 学科: O54 - Economywide country studies - Latin America ; Caribbean
Creator: Bergoeing, Raphael., Hernando, Andrés., and Repetto, Andrea. Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
We estimate the effects of policy distortions on aggregate productivity. Based on a model of plant production and productivity uncertainty and heterogeneity, and using Chilean manufacturing data, we focus on the effect of taxation on the exit behavior of plants. We find that taxes do distort the liquidation decisions of firms, suggesting that policy distortions reduce the extent to which factors are reallocated towards the most productive plants. Our results have important consequences for growth and development, as policies that alter the measure of plants that operate in equilibrium change the short-run response of output to exogenous shocks and the long run level of aggregate TFP. In particular, we find that the amount of productivity lost due to excessive plant shutdowns are very large.
关键词: South America, Exit behavior of firms, Chile, Latin America, Taxation policy, and Total factor productivity 学科: H25 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Business taxes and subsidies and E23 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Production