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Creator: Kydland, Finn E. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 267 Abstract:
The neoclassical growth model studied in Kydland and Prescott  is modified to permit the capital utilization rate to vary. The effect of this modification is to increase the amplitude of the aggregate fluctuations predicted by theory as the equilibrium response to technological shocks. If following Solow , the changes in output not accounted for by changes in the labor and tangible capital inputs are interpreted as being the technology shocks, the statistical properties of the fluctuations in the post-war United States economy are close in magintude and nature to those predicted by theory.
Palavra-chave: Production, Business cycle, Labor, and Work week Sujeito: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and D50 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - General
Creator: Braun, R. Anton. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 506 Abstract:
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates. It finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model's ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. In particular, modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model's predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity. Fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure/labor supply decision.
Palavra-chave: Tax rates, Real business cycle model, Corporate tax , Tax, Productivity, Taxation, Taxes, Business cycle, and Income tax Sujeito: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles, H24 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Personal income and other nonbusiness taxes and subsidies, and H25 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Business taxes and subsidies
Creator: Cooley, Thomas F., Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane), and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 535 Palavra-chave: Equilibrium and Business cycle Sujeito: E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 134 Palavra-chave: Shocks, Adjustments, Business cycle, and Employment Sujeito: D21 - Production and organizations - Firm behavior and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Kocherlakota, Narayana Rao, 1963- Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
There were three important changes in the United States economy during the 1980s. First, from 1982-90, the decade featured the longest consecutive stretch of positive quarterly output growth in United States history. Second, wage inequality expanded greatly as the wages of highly skilled workers grew markedly faster than the wages of less skilled workers (Katz and Murphy (1992)). Finally, consumption inequality also expanded as the consumption of highly skilled workers grew faster than that of less skilled workers (Attanasio and Davis (1994)). This paper argues that these three aspects of the United States economic experience can be interpreted as being part of an efficient response to a macroeconomic shock given the existence of a particular technological impediment to full insurance. I examine the properties of efficient allocations of risk in an economic environment in which the outside enforcement of risksharing arrangements is infinitely costly. In these allocations, relative productivity movements have effects on both the current and future distribution of consumption across individuals. If preferences over consumption and leisure are nonhomothetic, these changes in the allocation of consumption will generate persistent cycles in aggregate output that do not occur in efficient allocations when enforcement is costless.
Palavra-chave: Business cycle, Skilled workers, Risk, and Consumption Sujeito: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and E21 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
Creator: Edge, Rochelle Mary, 1971- and Rudd, Jeremy Bay, 1970- Series: Joint commitee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
We add a nominal tax system to a sticky-price monetary business cycle model. When nominal interest income is taxed, the coefficient on inflation in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule must be significantly larger than one in order for the model economy to have a determinate rational expectations equilibrium. When depreciation is treated as a charge against taxable income, an even larger weight on inflation is required in the Taylor rule in order to obtain a determinate and stable equilibrium. These results have obvious implications for assessing the historical conduct of monetary policy.
Palavra-chave: Monetary policy, Business cycle, Cycle, Interest, Inflation, Policy, Prices, Monetary, Rational expectation, and Tax Sujeito: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates, E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, E12 - General aggregative models - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Joint committee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple method for guiding researchers in developing quantitative models of economic fluctuations. We show that a large class of models, including models with various frictions, are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time varying wedges that, at least on face value, look like time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and capital income taxes. We label the time varying wedges as efficiency wedges, labor wedges, and investment wedges. We use data to measure these wedges and then feed them back into the prototype growth model. We then assess the fraction of fluctuations accounted for by these wedges during the great depressions of the 1930s in the United States, Germany, and Canada. We find that the efficiency and labor wedges in combination account for essentially all of the declines and subsequent recoveries. Investment wedge plays at best a minor role.
Palavra-chave: Business cycle, Cycle, Economic fluctuations, Fluctuation, and Growth Sujeito: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O47 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - Measurement of economic growth ; Aggregate productivity ; Cross-country output convergence, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles