Creator: Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 228 Abstract:
"Summary of Recommendations: . . . Repeal present control by the System over interest rates that member banks may pay on time deposits and present prohibition of interest payments by member banks on demand deposits." Milton Friedman (1960, p. 100) "I conclude that the over-all monetary effects of ceiling regulations are small and easy to neutralize by traditional monetary controls. The allocative and distributive effects are, however, unfortunate. The root of the policy was an exaggerated and largely unnecessary concern for the technical solvency of savings and loan associations." James Tobin (1970, p. 5) The regulation of deposit interest rates has received little support from economists. The same is true for the original rationale for such regulation: that bank competition for deposits generates inherent "instability" in the banking system. This paper develops an "adverse selection" model of banking in which this rationale is correct. Moreover, in this model instability in the banking system can arise despite the presence of a "lender of last resort," and despite the absence of any need for "deposit insurance." However, in the world described, the regulation of deposit interest rates is shown to be an appropriate response to "instability" in the banking system. Finally, it is argued that "adverse selection" models of deposit interest rate determination can confront a number of observed phenomena that are not readily explained in other contexts.
Keyword: Risk, Banking panics, Unregulated banks, Banking Act of 1935, Instability, Bank regulation, Banking Act of 1933, and Banking Act Subject (JEL): D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design, G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 522 Abstract:
We consider a two country growth model with international capital markets. These markets fund capital investment in both countries, and operate subject to a costly state verification (CSV) problem. Investors in each country require some external finance, but also provide internal finance, which mitigates the CSV problem. When two identical (except for their initial capital stocks) economies are closed, they necessarily converge monotonically to the same steady state output level. Unrestricted international financial trade precludes otherwise identical economies from converging, and poor countries are necessarily net lenders to rich countries. Oscillation in real activity and international capital flows can occur.
Keyword: CSV, Open economy, International lending, Costly state verification, Capital investment, Closed economy, Credit rationing, International capital markets, and Credit Subject (JEL): F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems and O16 - Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
Creator: Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 230 Abstract:
An overlapping generations model is developed that contains labor markets in which adverse selection problems arise. As a response to these problems, quantity rationing of labor occurs. In addition, the model is capable of generating (a) random employment and prices despite the absence of underlying uncertainty in equilibrium; (b) a statistical (nondegenerate) Phillips curve; (c) procyclical movements in productivity; (d) correlations between aggregate demand and unemployment (and output); (e) an absence of correlation between unemployment (employment) and real wages. In addition, the Phillips curve obtained typically has the "correct" slope. Finally, the model reconciles the theoretical importance and observed unimportance of intertemporal substitution effects, and explains why price level stability may be a poor policy objective.
Keyword: Philips curve, Prices, Labor, Productivity, Money, and Unemployment Subject (JEL): E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity, E12 - General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles