Creator: Guvenen, Fatih, Mataloni Jr., Raymond J., Rassier, Dylan G., and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 751 Abstract:
Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. We show how offshore profit shifting by U.S. multinational enterprises affects GDP and, thus, productivity measurement. Under international statistical guidelines, profit shifting causes part of U.S. production generated by multinationals to be excluded from official measures of U.S. production. Profit shifting has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in lower measures of U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct an alternative measure of value added that adjusts for profit shifting. The adjustments raise aggregate productivity growth rates by 0.09 percent annually for 1994-2004, 0.24 percent annually for 2004-2008, and lowers annual aggregate productivity growth rates by 0.09 percent after 2008. Our adjustments mitigate, but do not eliminate, the measured productivity slowdown. The adjustments are especially large in R&D-intensive industries, which most likely produce intangible assets that facilitate profit shifting. The adjustments boost value added in these industries by as much as 8 percent in the mid-2000s.
Keyword: Formulary apportionment, Productivity slowdown, and Tax havens Subject (JEL): E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts, F23 - Multinational Firms; International Business, and O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Rossbach, Jack, and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 492 Abstract:
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Keyword: Product , Industry, and Trade liberalization Subject (JEL): F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, F17 - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation, and F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Ruhl, Kim J., and Steinberg, Joseph B. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 489 Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the U.S. goods-producing sector has fallen. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing, nonhomothetic preferences, and differential productivity growth across sectors. We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from U.S. trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall.
Keyword: Structural change, Real exchange rate, and Global imbalances Subject (JEL): F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 453 Abstract:
Following its opening to trade and foreign investment in the mid-1980s, Mexico’s economic growth has been modest at best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude that the relation between openness and growth is not a simple one. Using standard trade theory, we find that Mexico has gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow faster than the United States by reforming. As a country becomes richer, this sort of catch-up becomes more difficult. Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s real GDP per working-age person.
Subject (JEL): O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, O10 - Economic Development: General, E23 - Macroeconomics: Production, E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, and O20 - Development Planning and Policy: General
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 414 Abstract:
A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994–95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.
Keyword: Sudden stop, Nontradable, Real exchange rate, Developing country crisis, Total factor productivity, Mexico, and Tradable Subject (JEL): F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements, O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean, F21 - International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements, F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, and E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Creator: Conesa, Juan Carlos, Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 401 Abstract:
This paper is a primer on the great depressions methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999, 2007) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007). We use growth accounting and simple dynamic general equilibrium models to study the depression that occurred in Finland in the early 1990s. We find that the sharp drop in real GDP over the period 1990–93 was driven by a combination of a drop in total factor productivity (TFP) during 1990–92 and of increases in taxes on labor and consumption and increases in government consumption during 1989–94, which drove down hours worked in Finland. We attempt to endogenize the drop in TFP in variants of the model with an investment sector and with terms-of-trade shocks but are unsuccessful.
Subject (JEL): F59 - International Relations and International Political Economy: Other, F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Asturias, Jose, Hur, Sewon, Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 544 Abstract:
Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. Studies of other countries confirm this empirical relationship. To analyze this relationship, we develop a simple model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992) in which there are analytical expressions for the FHK decomposition. When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the entry and exit terms in the FHK decomposition become more important as GDP grows rapidly, just as they do in the data from Chile and Korea.
Keyword: Entry, Exit, Productivity, Barriers to technology adoption, and Entry costs Subject (JEL): O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, O10 - Economic Development: General, O38 - Technological Change: Government Policy, and E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Pujolas, Pau S., and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 533 Abstract:
We show that a trade model with an exogenous set of heterogeneous firms with fixed operating costs has the same aggregate outcomes as a span-of-control model. Fixed costs in the heterogeneous-firm model are entrepreneurs' forgone wage in the span-of-control model.
Keyword: Span-of-control model, International trade, Firm heterogeneity, and Income distribution Subject (JEL): F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, and D43 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
Creator: Asturias, Jose, Hur, Sewon, Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 521 Abstract:
In what order should a developing country adopt policy reforms? Do some policies complement each other? Do others substitute for each other? To address these questions, we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with entry and exit of firms that are monopolistic competitors. Distortions in the model include barriers to entry of firms, barriers to international trade, and barriers to contract enforcement. We find that a reform that reduces one of these distortions has different effects depending on the other distortions present. In particular, reforms to trade barriers and barriers to the entry of new firms are substitutable, as are reforms to contract enforcement and trade barriers. In contrast, reforms to contract enforcement and the barriers to entry are complementary. Finally, the optimal sequencing of reforms requires reforming trade barriers before contract enforcement.
Keyword: Sequencing reforms, Trade barriers, Entry barriers, and Contract enforcement Subject (JEL): O24 - Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy, O19 - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations, O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, and F40 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 391 Abstract:
International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real GDP. The terms of trade do affect real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises.
Keyword: Terms of trade, Total factor productivity, Gross domestic product, and National income accounting Subject (JEL): F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, E23 - Macroeconomics: Production, and F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 324 Abstract:
We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral commodity trade due to goods not exported previously or exported only in small quantities. Using a panel of 1,900 country pairs, we find that increased trade of these “least-traded goods” is an important factor in trade growth. This extensive margin accounts for 10 percent of the growth in trade for NAFTA country pairs, for example, and 26 percent in trade between the United States and Chile, China, and Korea. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little change in the extensive margin.
Keyword: International trade, Extensive margin, Trade liberalization, NAFTA , and Structural change Subject (JEL): F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, O14 - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology, F10 - Trade: General, and F44 - International Business Cycles