Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Mercenier, Jean and Yeldan, Erinç Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 207 Abstract:
We highlight an example of considerable bias in officially published input-output data (factor-income shares) by an LDC (Turkey), which many researchers use without question. We make use of an intertemporal general equilibrium model of trade and production to evaluate the dynamic gains for Turkey from currently debated trade policy options and compare the predictions using conservatively adjusted, rather than official, data on factor shares. We show that the predicted welfare gains are not only of a different order of magnitude, but in some cases, of a different sign, hence, suggesting contradictory policy recommendations.
Creator: Mercenier, Jean Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 183 Abstract:
Applied general equilibrium models with imperfect competition and economies of scale have been extensively used for analyzing international trade and development policy issues. They offer a natural framework for testing the empirical relevance of propositions from the industrial organization and new trade theoretical literature. This paper warns model builders and users that considerable caution is needed in interpreting the results and deriving strong policy conclusions from these models: in this generation of applied general equilibrium models, nonuniqueness of equilibria is not a theoretical curiosum, but a potentially serious problem. Disregarding this may lead to dramatically wrong policy appraisals.
Parola chiave: Policy analysis, Scale economy , International trade , Trade agreement, and Free trade
Creator: Mercenier, Jean and Schmitt, Nicolas Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 188 Abstract:
We argue that the rationalization gains often predicted by static applied general equilibrium models with imperfect competition and scale economies are artificially boosted by an unrealistic treatment of fixed costs. We introduce sunk costs into one such model calibrated with real-world data. We show how this changes the oligopoly game in a way significant enough to affect, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the outcome of a trade liberalization exercise.
Parola chiave: Sunk costs, Trade liberalization, Market structure, and Applied general equilibrium Soggetto: C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models, F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation, F17 - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation, and D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models