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筛选: 创造者 McGrattan, Ellen R. 删除限定条件 创造者: McGrattan, Ellen R.

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  • P8418n32c?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Rogerson, Richard Donald
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 22, No. 1
    Abstract:

    This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically—from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a unique look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. The article also documents several factors that may be related to the changes in hours worked: simultaneous changes in Social Security benefits, fertility rates, and family structure. The data presented are based on those collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census during the 1950–90 decennial censuses.

  • 8s45q899w?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R.
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 22, No. 4
    Abstract:

    AK growth models predict that permanent changes in government policies affecting investment rates should lead to permanent changes in a country’s GDP growth. Charles Jones (1995) sees no evidence for this prediction in data for 15 OECD countries after World War II: rates of investment, especially for equipment, have risen while GDP growth rates have not. This article provides evidence supporting the AK models’ prediction. Data back to the 19th century show a strong positive relationship between investment rates and growth rates and short-lived deviations from trends. A strong positive relationship also exists between average rates of investment and growth in postwar data for a large cross-section of countries. To account for the short-run deviations in rates that Jones highlights, the model he used is extended to allow policies to affect not only investment/output ratios but also capital/output ratios and labor/leisure decisions.

  • 8049g522d?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Schmitz, James Andrew
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 23, No. 4
    Abstract:

    Most models of aggregate economic activity, like the standard neoclassical growth model, ignore the fact that equipment and structures are maintained and repaired. Once physical capital is purchased in these models, there are typically no more decisions made regarding its use. The theme of this article is that there is evidence to suggest that incorporating expenditures on the maintenance and repair of physical capital into models of aggregate economic activity will change the quantitative answers to some key questions that have been addressed with these models. This evidence is primarily from a little-used economywide survey in Canada. The survey shows that the activity of maintaining and repairing equipment and structures is an activity that is generally both large relative to investment and a substitute for investment to some extent—and to a large extent during some episodes.

  • G732d9153?file=thumbnail
    Creator: Jagannathan, Ravi, McGrattan, Ellen R., and Scherbina, Anna
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 24, No. 4
    Abstract:

    This study demonstrates that the U.S. equity premium has declined significantly during the last three decades. The study calculates the equity premium using a variation of a formula in the classic Gordon stock valuation model. The calculation includes the bond yield, the stock dividend yield, and the expected dividend growth rate, which in this formulation can change over time. The study calculates the premium for several measures of the aggregate U.S. stock portfolio and several assumptions about bond yields and stock dividends and gets basically the same result. The premium averaged about 7 percentage points during 1926–70 and only about 0.7 of a percentage point after that. This result is shown to be reasonable by demonstrating the roughly equal returns that investments in stocks and consol bonds of the same duration would have earned between 1982 and 1999, years when the equity premium is estimated to have been zero.

  • Kh04dp89s?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Prescott, Edward C.
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 24, No. 4
    Abstract:

    The value of U.S. corporate equity in the first half of 2000 was close to 1.8 times U.S. gross national product (GNP). Some stock market analysts have argued that the market is overvalued at this level. We use a growth model with an explicit corporate sector and find that the market is correctly valued. In theory, the market value of equity plus debt liabilities should equal the value of productive assets plus debt assets. Since the net value of debt is currently low, the market value of equity should be approximately equal to the market value of productive assets. We find that the market value of productive assets, including both tangible and intangible assets and assets used outside the country by U.S. subsidiaries, is currently about 1.8 times GNP, the same as the market value of equity.

  • Pr76f362m?file=thumbnail
    Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R.
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 27, No. 2
    Abstract:

    Economists have offered many theories for the U.S. Great Depression, but no consensus has formed on the main forces behind it. Here we describe and demonstrate a simple methodology for determining which theories are the most promising. We show that a large class of models, including models with various frictions, are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying efficiency, labor, and investment wedges that, at least on face value, look like time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and investment taxes. We use U.S. data to measure these wedges, feed them back into the prototype growth model, and assess the fraction of the fluctuations in 1929–39 that they account for. We find that the efficiency and labor wedges account for essentially all of the decline and subsequent recovery. Investment wedges play, at best, a minor role.

    学科: N12 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-, O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • Vx021f22w?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Rogerson, Richard Donald
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 28, No. 1
    Abstract:

    This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically—from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a detailed look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. This article also documents several factors that lead to the reallocation of hours worked across groups: increases in relative wages of females to males; technological innovations that shift female labor from the home to the market; increases in Social Security benefits to retired workers; and changes in family structure. The data presented are based on those collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census during the 1950–2000 decennial censuses.

  • Pc289j23x?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R.
    Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: Vol. 33, No. 1
    Abstract:

    Applied macroeconomists interested in identifying the sources of business cycle fluctuations typically have no more than 40 or 50 years of data at a quarterly frequency. With sample sizes that small, identification may not be possible even with correctly specified representations of the data. In this article, I investigate whether small samples are indeed a problem for some commonly used statistical representations. I compare three—a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), an unrestricted state space, and a restricted state space—that are all consistent with the same prototype business cycle model. The statistical representations that I consider differ in the amount of a priori theory that is imposed, but all are correctly specified. I find that the identifying assumptions of VARMAs and unrestricted state space representations are too minimal: the range of estimates for statistics of interest for business cycle researchers is so large as to be uninformative.

  • 9c67wm880?file=thumbnail
    Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Waddle, Andrea
    Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: 542
    Abstract:

    Using simulations from a multicountry neoclassical growth model, we analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on FDI and trade from other EU nations. Second, the European Union retaliates and imposes the same restrictions on the UK. Finally, the United Kingdom reduces restrictions on other nations during the post-Brexit transition. Model predictions depend crucially on the policy response of multinationals’ investment in technology capital, accumulated know-how from investments in R&D, brands, and organizations used simultaneously in their domestic and foreign operations.

    关键词: FDI, European Union, Foreign investment, United Kingdom, and Brexit
    学科: O34 - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, and F23 - Multinational Firms; International Business
  • Nz805z843?file=thumbnail
    Creator: Bhandari, Anmol and McGrattan, Ellen R.
    Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)
    Number: 560
    Abstract:

    We develop a theory of sweat equity—which is the value of business owners’ time and expenses to build customer bases, client lists, and other intangible assets. We discipline the theory using data from U.S. national accounts, business censuses, and brokered sales to estimate a value for sweat equity for the private business sector equal to 1.2 times U.S. GDP, which is roughly the value of fixed assets in use in these businesses. Although latent, the equity values are positively correlated with business incomes, ages, and standard measures of markups based on accounting data, but not with financial assets of owners or standard measures of business total factor productivity (TFP). We use our theory to show that abstracting from sweat activity leads to a significant understatement of the impacts of lowering tax rates on business incomes—on both the extensive and intensive margins. We also document large differences in the effective tax rates and the effects of tax changes for owner and employee labor inputs. Lower tax rates on owners results in increased self-employment and smaller firm sizes, whereas lower rates on employees has the opposite effects. Allowing for financial constraints and superstar firms does not overturn our main findings.

    关键词: Business valuation and Intangibles
    学科: H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added (VAT), E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity, and E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical