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Creator: Boldrin, Michele and Levine, David K. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 279 Abstract:
Market booms are often followed by dramatic falls. To explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks. A straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles. Assuming a representative consumer, we show that the stock market generally rises, punctuated by occasional dramatic falls. With high risk aversion, bad news causes dramatic increases in prices. Bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities, but to a slowdown in their rate of expansion. This economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations.
Palavra-chave: Growth Cycles, Stock Market Value, and Technological Revolutions Sujeito: O30 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights: General, O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Boldrin, Michele and Levine, David K. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 301 Abstract:
We study a simple model of factor saving technological innovation in a concave framework. Capital can be used either to reproduce itself or, at additional cost, to produce a higher quality of capital that requires less labor input. If higher quality capital can be produced quickly, we get a model of exogenous balanced growth as a special case. If, however, higher quality capital can be produced slowly, we get a model of endogenous growth in which the growth rate of the economy and the rate of adoption of new technologies are determined by preferences, technology, and initial conditions. Moreover, in the latter case, the process of growth is necessarily uneven, exhibiting a natural cycle with alternating periods of high and low growth. Growth paths and technological innovations also exhibit dependence upon initial conditions. The model provides a step toward a theory of endogenous innovation under conditions of perfect competition.
Palavra-chave: Innovation and invention, One, two and multisector growth models, Measurement of economic growth, Choices and consequences, Technological change, Processes and incentives, and Aggregate productivity Sujeito: C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis, O30 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights: General, D24 - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity, O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, and D41 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design: Perfect Competition