Résultats de recherche
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Ruhl, Kim J., and Steinberg, Joseph B. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 489 Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the U.S. goods-producing sector has fallen. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing, nonhomothetic preferences, and differential productivity growth across sectors. We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from U.S. trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall.
Mot-clé: Global imbalances, Structural change, and Real exchange rate Assujettir: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, and E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 414 Abstract:
A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994–95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.
Mot-clé: Tradable, Nontradable, Mexico, Developing country crisis, Sudden stop, Real exchange rate, and Total factor productivity Assujettir: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, F21 - International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements, F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements, and O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean
Creator: Bajona, Claustre and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 378 Abstract:
In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model — a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model — with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.
Mot-clé: Heckscher–Ohlin, Economic growth, International trade, and Convergence Assujettir: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O15 - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration, F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, and F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Creator: Bajona, Claustre and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 377 Abstract:
We contrast the properties of dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models with overlapping generations with those of models with infinitely lived consumers under both closed and open international capital markets. In both environments, if capital is mobile, factor price equalization occurs after the initial period. If capital is not mobile, the properties of equilibria differ drastically across environments: With infinitely lived consumers, factor prices equalize in any steady state or cycle and, in general, there is positive trade in any steady state or cycle. With overlapping generations, we construct examples with steady states and cycles in which factor prices are not equalized, and any equilibrium that converges to a steady state or a cycle with factor price equalization has no trade after a finite number of periods.
Assujettir: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O15 - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration, F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, and F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies