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Creator: Chari, V. V., Jagannathan, Ravi, and Jones, Larry E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 316 Abstract:
In this paper, we characterize those situations in which after the introduction of futures markets there is either an unambiguous change in the volatility of spot prices or an unambiguous change in welfare. We provide examples of the usefulness of this approach by giving two alternative sets of sufficient conditions for price volatility to decline following the introduction of futures trading. We also provide a set of sufficient conditions for the introduction of futures trading to increase the welfare of all agents.
Palabra clave: Futures market, Prices, and Commodities Tema: O16 - Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Jones, Larry E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 324 Abstract:
This paper examines the validity of one very special version of Coase's Theorem. The version we examine is that in any economy in which the property rights are fully allocated, competition will lead to efficient allocations. One repercussion of this result is that one way to "solve" the public goods problem would be to allocate property rights fully, transforming the economy to a private goods one and let markets do their work. This is particularly appealing due to its decentralized nature, but one must question the claim that the market will lead to efficient outcomes in this case. That is, the privatized economy created above is of a very special type which, as it turns out is highly susceptible to strategic behavior. We show that the "mechanism" suggested above is not likely to work well in economies with either pure public goods or "global" externalities. Basically, the free-rider problem manifests itself as one of monopoly power in this private goods setting. On the other hand, if the public goods or externalities are "local" in nature, there is reason to hope that this (and perhaps other) mechanism(s) will work well. The work is related to the recent literature on the foundations of Walrasian Equilibrium in that it points up a relationship between the appropriateness of Walrasian equilibrium as a solution concept, the incentives for strategic play, the aggregate level of complementarities in the economy and the problem of coordinating economic activity.
Palabra clave: Competition, Coordinating economic activity, Property rights, Walrasian Equilibrium, and Coase's Theorem Tema: H41 - Public Goods
Creator: Hosseini, Roozbeh, Jones, Larry E., and Shourideh, Ali Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 674 Abstract:
We use an extended Barro-Becker model of endogenous fertility, in which parents are heterogeneous in their labor productivity, to study the efficient degree of consumption inequality in the long run. In our environment a utilitarian planner allows for consumption inequality even when labor productivity is public information. We show that adding private information does not alter this result. We also show that the informationally constrained optimal insurance contract has a resetting property—whenever a family line experiences the highest shock, the continuation utility of each child is reset to a (high) level that is independent of history. This implies that there is a non-trivial, stationary distribution over continuation utilities and there is no mass at misery. The novelty of our approach is that the no-immiseration result is achieved without requiring that the objectives of the planner and the private agents disagree. Because there is no discrepancy between planner and private agents' objectives, the policy implications for implementation of the efficient allocation differ from previous results in the literature. Two examples of these are: 1) estate taxes are positive and 2) there are positive taxes on family size.
Tema: H21 - Taxation and Subsidies: Efficiency; Optimal Taxation, D30 - Distribution: General, D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, D64 - Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfer, H23 - Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, H43 - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate, and C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
Creator: Golosov, Mikhail, Jones, Larry E., and Tertilt, Michèle Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 630 Abstract:
In this paper, we generalize the notion of Pareto-efficiency to make it applicable to environments with endogenous populations. Two efficiency concepts are proposed, P-efficiency and A-efficiency. The two concepts differ in how they treat people who are not born. We show how these concepts relate to the notion of Pareto-efficiency when fertility is exogenous. We then prove versions of the first welfare theorem assuming that decision making is efficient within the dynasty. Finally, we give two sets of sufficient conditions for noncooperative equilibria of family decision problems to be efficient. These include the Barro and Becker model as a special case.
Palabra clave: First welfare theorem, Altruism, Dynasty, Pareto optimality, and Fertility
Creator: Chari, V. V., Jones, Larry E., and Marimon, Ramon, 1953- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 582 Abstract:
In U.S. elections, voters often vote for candidates from different parties for president and Congress. Voters also express dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress as a whole and satisfaction with their own representative. We develop a model of split-ticket voting in which government spending is financed by uniform taxes but the benefits from this spending are concentrated. While the model generates split-ticket voting, overall spending is too high only if the president’s powers are limited. Overall spending is too high in a parliamentary system, and our model can be used as the basis of an argument for term limits.
Tema: H40 - Publicly Provided Goods: General, H00 - Public Economics: General, and H30 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General
Creator: Boldrin, Michele, De Nardi, Mariacristina, and Jones, Larry E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 359 Abstract:
The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by Barro and Becker (1989), and one inspired by Caldwell (1978, 1982) and developed by Boldrin and Jones (2002). In Barro and Becker’s model parents have children because they perceive their children’s lives as a continuation of their own. In Boldrin and Jones’ framework parents procreate because children care about their parents’ utility, and thus provide them with old-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe-U.S. fertility differences both across countries and across time.
Palabra clave: Fertility, Intra-family transfers, Financial Markets, and Social Security Tema: E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, J10 - Demographic Economics: General, O10 - Economic Development: General, and J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Creator: Jones, Larry E., Manuelli, Rodolfo E., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 317 Abstract:
We study the large observed changes in labor supply by married women in the United States over the post–World War II period, a period that saw little change in the labor supply by single women. We investigate the effects of changes in the gender wage gap, the quantitative impact of technological improvements in the production of nonmarket goods, and the potential inferiority of nonmarket goods in explaining the dramatic change in labor supply. We find that small decreases in the gender wage gap can simultaneously explain the significant increases in the average hours worked by married women and the relative constancy in the hours worked by single women and by single and married men. We also find that the impact of technological improvements in the household on married female hours and on the relative wage of females to males is too small for realistic values. Some specifications of the inferiority of home goods match the hours patterns, but they have counterfactual predictions for wages and expenditure patterns.
Palabra clave: Gender wage gap, Technological improvements, and Hours of work Tema: J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply and E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Creator: Jones, Larry E., Manuelli, Rodolfo E., and Stacchetti, Ennio Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 281 Abstract:
Our objective is to understand how fundamental uncertainty can affect the long-run growth rate and what factors determine the nature of the relationship. Qualitatively, we show that the relationship between volatility in fundamentals and policies and mean growth can be either positive or negative. We identify the curvature of the utility function as a key parameter that determines the sign of the relationship. Quantitatively, we find that when we move from a world of perfect certainty to one with uncertainty that resembles the average uncertainty in a large sample of countries, growth rates increase, but not enough to account for the large differences in mean growth rates observed in the data. However, we find that differences in the curvature of preferences have substantial effects on the estimated variability of stationary objects like the consumption/output ratio and hours worked.
Creator: Jones, Larry E. and Manuelli, Rodolfo E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 276 Abstract:
What determines the relationship between pollution and growth? Are the forces that explain the behavior over time of these quantities potentially useful to understand more generally the relationship between policies and growth? In this paper, we make a first attempt to analyze the equilibrium behavior of two quantities—the level of pollution and the level of income—in a setting in which societies choose, via voting, how much to regulate pollution. Our major finding is that, consistent with the evidence, the relationship between pollution and growth need not be monotone and that the precise equilibrium nature of the relationship between the two variables depends on whether individuals vote over effluent charges or directly restrict the choice of technology. Moreover, our analysis of the pollution problem suggests that, more generally, endogenous policy choices should be taken seriously as potential sources of heterogeneity when studying cross country differences in economic performance.
Tema: Q20 - Renewable Resources and Conservation: General, E20 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data), O20 - Development Planning and Policy: General, and O10 - Economic Development: General
Creator: Jones, Larry E., Manuelli, Rodolfo E., and Siu, Henry E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 271 Abstract:
We present a class of convex endogenous growth models and analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. We interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of the two classes of models.
To highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation—our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated.
Tema: E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles and D90 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: General