Research Database

In this paper we develop a discretized version of the dynamic programming algorithm and derive error bounds for the approximate value and policy functions. We show that under the proposed scheme the computed value function converges quadratically to the true value function and the computed policy function converges linearly, as the mesh size of the discretization converges to zero. Moreover, the constants involved in these orders of convergence can be computed in terms of primitive data of the model. We also discuss several aspects of the implementation of our methods, and present numerical results for some commonly studied macroeconomic models.

The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a novel method of sequential spectral decomposition (SSD), based on recursive state-space smoothing, to decompose the series into a number of quasi-orthogonal components. This SSD procedure can be considered as a complete approach to the problem of model identification and estimation, or it can be used as a first step in maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the paper illustrates the overall adaptive approach by considering a practical example of a UK unemployment series which exhibits marked nonstationarity caused by various economic factors.

This article argues that fiat money’s only technological role in an economy is to act as societal memory: money allows people to credibly record some aspects of their transactions and make that record accessible to other people. This record-keeping role is demonstrated in the three standard paradigms of fiat money: the overlapping generations, turnpike, and search models. In these models, if a new economy is created by removing the money and replacing it only with a historical record of all transactions, known to everyone in the economy, then the original monetary allocation is still achievable as an equilibrium.

A version of the Diamond-Dybvig model of banking is used to evaluate the narrow banking proposal, the idea that banks should be required to back demand deposits entirely by safe short-term assets. It is shown that the mere existence of an amount of safe short-term assets outside the banking system that exceeds banking system liabilities does not make the proposal either innocuous or desirable. In fact, despite such existence, using narrow banking to cope with banking system illiquidity eliminates the role of the banking system.

Leamer (1983) suggested to study the range of estimators β˅0 in the model y=Xβ + δ when imposing linear constraints of the form M (Cβ - c) = 0 where only C and c are fixed. However the extremes may come from models with a bad R^2, say. In this paper we give the exact bounds when only considering models with R^2 ≥ (1 - δ) R^2 max + δR^2 min. These exact bounds can be found from calculating only two regressions. We apply our techniques to study the velocity of money.

This essay concerns how the Federal Reserve’s role as a payment services provider can best be aligned with its broad mission to foster the integrity, efficiency, and accessibility of the U.S. payments system. A recommended strategy involves specialization in providing services where the central bank has a comparative advantage—notably, services directly related to providing a comprehensive, secure system of accounts for interbank settlement and potentially some additional services justified by economies of scope. If markets for other payment services evolve as expected, the recommended strategy would have the Fed generally rely on means other than direct service provision to help ensure that services are provided effectively and equitably. Several specific implications of this strategy are suggested.

This essay explains the use of fiat money, or why intrinsically useless objects are accepted as payment in transactions. People accept a particular object as a means of payment because others do: social conventions matter more than the intrinsic characteristics of the object itself. Not everything can become a fiat money, though. If an object is especially costly to hold, for example, it will not be accepted as a means of payment. This explanation of fiat money is illustrated in a simple theoretical economic model.

In 1995, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. This review places Lucas’ work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession. Lucas’ central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics. Economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate. This sea change is due primarily to Lucas.

This paper shows how standard methods can be used to formulate and estimate a dynamic index model for random fields—stochastic processes indexed by time and cross section where the time-series and cross-section dimensions are comparable in magnitude. We use these to study dynamic comovements of sectoral employment in the U.S. economy. The dynamics of employment in sixty sectors is well explained using only two unobservable factors; those factors are also strongly correlated with GNP growth.

Latin American countries are the only Western countries that are poor and that aren’t gaining ground on the United States. This article evaluates why Latin America has not replicated Western economic success. We find that this failure is primarily due to total factor productivity (TFP) differences. Latin America’s TFP gap is not plausibly accounted for by human capital differences, but rather reflects inefficient production. We argue that competitive barriers are a promising channel for understanding low Latin TFP. We document that Latin America has many more international and domestic competitive barriers than do Western and successful East Asian countries. We also document a number of microeconomic cases in Latin America in which large reductions in competitive barriers increase productivity to Western levels.

This article documents a delay in the public release of Mexican international reserve data in the months before Mexico's debt crisis at the end of 1994. The article establishes that in that year investors did not know the level of Mexican reserves before October; yet this lack of information did not seem to reduce investor confidence in the Mexican economy. The article does not establish whether the delay in releasing reserve data was due to logistical problems or to a government strategy. The possibility that the delay was strategic is evaluated by developing an economic model that captures some of the principal constraints facing the Mexican government in 1994 and that makes explicit the conflicting objectives of the government and investors. The model shows that in such an environment with private information, strategic delay can occur in equilibrium if investors are uncertain about the cause of the delay.